Analysis of geographic centrality and genetic diversity in the declining grasshopper species Bryodemella tuberculata (Orthoptera: Oedipodinae)

Abstract Human-induced ecological and climatic changes have led to the decline even local extinction of many formerly widely distributed temperate cold-adapted species. Determining exact causes this remains difficult. Bryodemella tuberculata was a orthopteran species before mid-19th century. Since then, European populations suffered drastic declines are now considered extinct or critically endangered. We used niche modelling based on large dataset extant occurrence data investigate whether poor suitability in periphery its global range possible cause B. . also population genetics COI marker estimate compare genetic diversity populations. found that Europe still provides highly suitable habitats close optimum, contradicting assumption climate change as major driver decline. Instead, land-cover other anthropogenic modifications at scale seem be reasons for extinctions. Genetic analysis suggests Central Asia center with stable size, whereas effective sizes remaining decreasing. lineages nested within Asian lineages, suggesting source distribution area. Our results suggest declining represent relics wider distribution, which fragmented by land-use. These threatened limited connectivity small sizes. Specific conservation actions, such restoration former potential new habitats, translocation individuals from these restored sites may help slow, stall, revert process.